US-Iran Hold Secret Talks to Avert War!

Amidst ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the United States and Iran have intensified diplomatic efforts to avoid a major new military operation. Discussions are secretly underway between the two countries, mediated by Qatar, regarding a possible understanding. However, the path to an agreement remains quite difficult due to disagreements over the nuclear program, the Strait of Hormuz, and economic sanctions.

On Sunday (November 8), US President Donald Trump stated in an interview with CNN that if progress is made towards an understanding regarding Iran’s nuclear program and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, the likelihood of a new US attack on the country would be very low.

On the same day, he also indicated on CBS’s ‘Sixty Minutes’ program that he had no intention of escalating war tensions. However, the US President did not rule out military action as an alternative if a strong deal with Iran is not reached.

Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is unwilling to claim significant progress in the discussions. He stated on Sunday that the two countries have not yet come close to any major understanding. Several of Iran’s demands are unacceptable to the United States.

Trump’s Stance Shift After Midterm Elections?

Following the Republicans’ significant defeat in the US midterm elections on November 3, new political pressure has emerged regarding the Iran conflict. Democrats gained control of both chambers of Congress in the elections. The rising prices of fuel and essential commodities due to the war were also identified as one of the key reasons for the Republican defeat.

Trump himself admitted that the issue of the Iran war influenced voters’ decisions. Vice President J.D. Vance also cited the war’s role behind the Republicans’ defeat in the elections.

However, even after the election results, Trump does not consider the decision to attack Iran to be a mistake. He stated that if he had to make the same decision again, he would still favor an attack.

On the other hand, Tehran views the election results as an opportunity to strengthen its diplomatic position. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that American voters have expressed their opinions. Now it is Washington’s turn to decide.

Iran’s Seven Conditions in Secret Talks

While the details of the discussions between the US and Iran have not been disclosed, the positions of both sides are clear. Washington wants Iran’s nuclear program to be controlled and for the country not to acquire the capability to build nuclear weapons.

Conversely, Tehran views its nuclear program as part of its sovereign right. The country has demanded that the United States fulfill seven conditions before it agrees to sit for talks.

Iran’s demands include: an end to war on all fronts, the withdrawal of US blockades at sea, the easing of economic sanctions, and the release of Iranian assets frozen abroad. There is also a demand for compensation for war damages.

Iran’s top security official, Mohsen Rezaee, stated that Tehran is not willing to open the Strait of Hormuz or sit for discussions on its nuclear program until these conditions are met.

On the other hand, the United States alleges that Iran possesses a significant amount of enriched uranium that could be used for building nuclear weapons. Washington wants this uranium stockpile to be reduced or safely moved elsewhere.

However, Iran has consistently claimed that its nuclear program is peaceful and is conducted for energy production.

Bargaining Over Sanctions and Compensation

Alongside the nuclear program, Iran’s economic interests are also a crucial part of the discussions. Due to long-standing US sanctions, the country has faced various obstacles in selling oil in the international market and in foreign transactions. A substantial amount of Iranian assets also remains frozen in various foreign banks.

Tehran wants the United States to withdraw or ease these sanctions and return the seized assets. Additionally, they are demanding compensation for war damages.

Conversely, Washington wants to consider economic concessions only after receiving clear assurances regarding the nuclear program. Consequently, there are significant disagreements between the two countries over which side will make concessions first.

What’s Happening Through Qatar’s Mediation?

Qatar is acting as a mediator to maintain communication between the United States and Iran. Discussions are ongoing between the two countries regarding a draft understanding proposal. Several regional countries, including Pakistan, are also involved in diplomatic communication in this process.

A Reuters report on November 5 stated that Iran has sent a proposal regarding its nuclear program to the United States via Qatar. However, the country does not want to begin discussions on this matter until Tehran’s seven demands are met.

A meeting between Trump and Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani is scheduled for November 9 in Washington. The Iran situation and the mediation efforts are likely to be important topics at this meeting.

Trust Deficit: The Biggest Obstacle to Understanding

Mutual distrust is one of the biggest obstacles on the path to an agreement between the United States and Iran. Tehran’s trust in Washington has significantly diminished due to military conflicts erupting in the past while nuclear discussions were ongoing.

Iran fears that after opening the Strait of Hormuz or relinquishing control over enriched uranium, the United States and Israel might launch another attack. This would leave the country in a militarily and diplomatically vulnerable position.

Conversely, the United States wants to secure significant concessions from Iran regarding its nuclear program and regional military activities. At the same time, the security of Israel and Arab allies is also a consideration for Washington.

Disagreements also exist between the two sides regarding the role of Iran-backed armed groups in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen. The United States wants to limit Iran’s opportunity to expand its regional influence through these groups.

Furthermore, the dispute over the control of the Strait of Hormuz is also significant. A large volume of oil and gas is transported through this waterway, which is one of the world’s most important routes for energy supply. The United States wants the strait to remain open for the benefit of international trade. Conversely, Tehran is using this waterway as a strategic bargaining chip.

Overall, despite continued diplomatic contact between the United States and Iran, there is uncertainty about the possibility of quickly reaching an agreement. On one hand, Trump is indicating a low probability of new attacks, while on the other, he is keeping military options open. Iran, too, is maintaining preparations to deal with potential new conflicts alongside discussions.

However, the ongoing communication between the two sides and the exchange of proposals through Qatar’s mediation have created an opportunity for a diplomatic solution. The key question now is how much the United States and Iran can deviate from their rigid positions to reach an understanding on ending the war and their nuclear programs.

Source: Reuters

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