Cut off from Europe, Russia will have to rewire its Arctic gas trade

An EU ban on Russian liquefied natural gas imports starting Jan. 1, 2027 will force Moscow to find new buyers for exports from Yamal, its flagship Arctic project, and new ways to ship the gas.

Yamal’s LNG, gas that is cooled into a liquid so it can travel by ship, goes west through the Kara and Barents seas, around northern Norway and into European waters. Between January and October 2026, 81% of Yamal’s recorded deliveries were destined for Europe as companies scrambled to get ahead of the upcoming ban, according to new analysis by the NGO Urgewald. It estimates Europe’s bill for that period at €8.7 billion, already above its estimate of €7.2 billion for all of 2025.

The ban will end the long-term contracts that still tie Yamal to Europe. Russia will have to redirect the gas, most likely to buyers in Asia, and reorganize the shipping network to reach them. Longer voyages mean higher costs and fewer trips per tanker each year because of the distance.

The LNG trade “is going to look completely different,” said Malte Humpert, senior fellow and founder of the think tank Arctic Institute. The ban gives Moscow “a bigger incentive” to find another route, he said. “It’s not easy. It’s not cheap. It’s very slow,” but Russia will “figure it out.”

From black markets to new ports

An increase in black market LNG trade could be one way out. A classic shadow fleet has not been needed so far, since Yamal is not under sanctions, said Sebastian Rötters, sanctions campaigner at Urgewald.

Nor is a shadow fleet well suited to the job. They typically use old, unregistered oil tankers that can easily disguise their movements. On the other hand, there are fewer LNG carriers globally and they follow a limited number of routes, making them easier to track, said Martin Vladimirov, a senior analyst at the Center for the Study of Democracy, a think tank that follows EU sanctions policy.

Bovanenkovo gas field on the Yamal peninsula in the Arctic circle on May 21, 2019. | Alexander Nemenov/AFP via Getty Images

One possible workaround is a “virtual swap.” Russia could sell more gas to countries such as Turkey or China, which could then sell more of their own or other countries’ gas to Europe. That would preserve Russia’s income even as its LNG is barred from European ports, Vladimirov said.

But even if Moscow finds buyers, it still has to get the LNG to them. That means Russian ships unable to access Europe will need to rebuild their logistics chains to sail farther or transfer their cargoes to other ships elsewhere before sailing on to alternative markets.

Either way, officials are already gearing up to confront the anticipated increase in black market activity. The matter requires “more attention on the European level,” said Lithuanian Energy Minister Lukas Savickas, whose government will helm the EU’s six-month rotating presidency from January.

That means a holistic approach that steps up monitoring of interconnection points, pipelines and ports across the EU rather than focusing on individual ships or companies, he said.

How far the ships have to go will be determined by who is willing to buy. If China, South Korea or Japan are the only buyers, “they have to go really far,” Humpert said, but if Moscow can sell part of the gas to Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan or Vietnam, they wouldn’t have to.

“Imagine the gas station you’ve been driving to for the last seven years, suddenly the gas station is three or four times as far away,” Humpert said. Yamal sits on Siberia’s Arctic coast. Europe was Yamal’s nearest major market, a voyage of about six to 10 days, compared with Asia, which takes much longer to reach.

East vs. West

Russia has two main ways to get Yamal’s gas to Asian buyers.

One is to sail east through Arctic waters on the Northern Sea Route. But Russia has only 15 specialized tankers capable of navigating the route in winter. They are costly to operate, so most have been used for short trips to Europe, where they can unload and return quickly, Rötters said.

Vladimir Panov, head of the Arctic Directorate at Rosatom, Russia’s state nuclear corporation, said last month it plans to send the gas east year-round, with help from a new nuclear icebreaker expected in early 2027. That will be easier said than done. Only 11 ships have made that eastward winter trip since 2018, and some returned with hull and propeller damage.

Repairs are another problem. Ships damaged in the ice can no longer be fixed in EU yards. Europe is currently the specialist in repairing icebreakers. China’s repair capacity is limited, Rötters said. The tanker Alexey Kosygin, for example, has spent an unusually long time in a Chinese shipyard after being damaged.

The other option is to sail west first. Because Russian ships cannot stop in Europe, they could transfer the gas near Murmansk from the specialized tankers to conventional carriers, which would then take it to Asia. Russia has bought an estimated 20 to 25 second-hand conventional ships for this purpose over the past year or two, Humpert said.

The shorter way to Asia would run through the Mediterranean and the Suez Canal, but Russian LNG carriers have largely avoided it since March, when the Arctic Metagaz, which was carrying gas from Russia’s sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project, was attacked off Malta. No Russian gas has passed through the Mediterranean since, Rötters said. That leaves a route around Africa, which takes 35 to 40 days one way.

Ripple effects

That’s not to say Moscow is without options, thanks mainly to non-European companies, said Humpert, of the Arctic Institute. Novatek, the company behind Yamal, acquired two medium-ice-class vessels from a Japanese company a month ago. “I would never bet against Novatek,” he said, adding that Moscow could restore most of its Yamal LNG exports within a year or two.

The wreck of Russian liquified natural gas carrier Arctic Metagaz adrift between Malta and Lampedusa is seen in this aerial photo taken on March 15, 2026. | Miguela Xuereb/Newsbook Malta/AFP via Getty Images

Each winter voyage also gives Russia more experience navigating the frozen Arctic, Humpert said. These winter routes differ sharply from the summer routes Brussels is focused on, and Russia is currently the only country able to sail the former. What Moscow learns about ice, ships and logistics under the ban could benefit it in the future.

All this will unfold in a region the EU’s new Arctic Strategy casts as a vital part of its future trade, economic and security policy.

The effects of the ban extend well beyond Russia. At a time when the Iran war has already tightened supply, Europe will have to buy LNG elsewhere, “and most likely that LNG will be more expensive,” Humpert said. Urgewald says the benchmark price rose to €86.79 per megawatt-hour in October, up from €75.34 in September and €35 in January. Rötters said those higher prices help Moscow cover part of the cost of the longer routes.

European ports like Belgium’s Zeebrugge terminal, the largest EU destination for Yamal gas this year, will also feel the loss of that supply.