Ukraine claims thousands of Russian casualties and a slowing Kremlin advance

DNIPRO, Ukraine — Heavy Russian losses are one of the reasons for Moscow’s slowing advance in Ukraine this year, the commander of the country’s Air Assault Forces said.

“Even though the Russian offensive continues, the enemy is not demonstrating rapid operational successes that would allow it to advance quickly. They are slowing down,” Maj. Gen. Oleh Apostol told a group of journalists in a secure location on Tuesday.

“If they capture a single tree line in a month, that hardly constitutes an operational success upon which further gains can be built,” Apostol said.

Russian casualties are rising, according to the commander and to NATO officials.

“In the past few months, Russia has been losing more than 40,000 troops — killed or seriously wounded — every month. The United States in 14 years, in Vietnam, lost 56,000. Here in one month, Russia, dead or seriously wounded, 40,000. And in October, early reporting indicates this number may have climbed to over 50,000,” NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said this week.

Neither Ukraine nor Russia publishes their exact military losses.

The Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies this summer estimated that Russian forces had suffered about 1.4 million casualties, including 400,000 to 450,000 fatalities, from the start of the full-scale invasion through June 2026. It estimated Ukrainian casualties at 525,000 to 625,000, including 125,000 to 150,000 fatalities, over the same period.

Despite rising casualties, the Russian military continues to press forward but is making few lasting gains, Apostol said. He estimated that Ukrainian forces had retaken more than 800 square kilometers from Russian forces this year as the result of two local counteroffensive operations.

Ukraine’s offensives have both a military and a political meaning as they show Kyiv is successfully resisting Russian pressure, Apostol said.

In his view, successes on the battlefield provide additional arguments for continuing military aid from Kyiv’s allies, while a lack of positive momentum could increase external pressure to negotiate.

“Ukrainian counter-offensive actions refute Russian claims regarding the impossibility of further resistance and strengthen Ukraine’s arguments in its engagement with international partners,” the general said.

Apostol said that many of Moscow’s claimed successes are propaganda efforts that do not mark real territorial gains and that lower-level commanders may mislead their superiors about the actual situation on the battlefield.

When it’s impossible to demonstrate real success, Russian forces use individual soldiers with flags to film proof of control over entire areas, Apostol said, adding that such soldiers are usually quickly killed by Ukrainian forces.

“A Russian flag at a given position does not necessarily mean that the location has actually been captured and is being held,” he said.

Claims and counter-claims

During the latest round of U.S.-led peace talks this week, Russia claimed it had occupied half of the territory in the Donbas that is currently under Ukrainian control, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

“So the Russians think and they share that they really occupied half of the territory of Donbas, which we control really,” he said, adding that Russian leader Vladimir Putin was being misinformed and that Kremlin negotiators were trying to use exaggerated territorial claims to influence the U.S.

“I think that Putin lives a little bit in different information,” Zelenskyy said. “It’s a different reality. And of course, he is sharing with America.”

Russia is claiming that it has taken 6,500 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory this year, while the Institute for the Study of War think tank estimates that the real total is a Russian net gain of only 73 square kilometers.

Putin is “trying once again to breathe life into the myth of inevitable Russian military victory in order to persuade the United States and other supporters of Ukraine to compel Kyiv to surrender,” ISW wrote.

Apostol underlined that Ukraine is being very careful in its operations to try and minimize troop losses because of its lack of manpower.

“You must attack where success is possible,” Apostol said, adding that Ukraine favors localized attacks instead of a massive counteroffensive. In many cases, the goal is to stabilize the frontline and not to take more territory. “Launching an offensive against a well-prepared enemy force that holds a numerical advantage may fail to yield the desired outcome,” he said.

Ukraine has a much smaller population than Russia and has had difficulties in recruiting new forces and preventing soldiers from deserting.

“If a person is treated like a dog, they might go AWOL,” Apostol said.